A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
